For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 135 points again, as a result of throwing a quote to the values of the beginning of the week. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote has found a foothold in the area of the psychological level of 1.3000 once again, as a result forming a rebound towards the maximum of 1.3148 last Monday. On the other hand, informational and news background continues to hold onto the splashes of Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May offered cooperation to the opposition Labour party, where she chose a softer version of Brexit, pushing tough European skeptics into the background and triggering their ire. Moreover, Theresa May delivered another blow to the European skeptics, promising that in case of failure of the negotiations with the Labor Party, she will fulfill the will of the parliament and act with the negotiations as the deputies decide. Thus, with her speech, the head of government even more intrigued over the already confusing Brexit. At the same time, according to Theresa, she is ready to request an additional postponement of the country’s withdrawal from the EU at the upcoming EU summit on April 10. The request for a postponement is planned until May 22, in order not to have to participate in the elections to the European Parliament.
Returning to the trading schedule, we see upward jumps, whether the news was positive, I would not say, because in general terms, nothing has changed. It can even be said that it has worsened. But speculators, pulling words out of context, simply decided to jump on the background.
Today, the information background will continue its development and, probably, from the European side, where everyone will try to comment on Theresa May’s “new” ideas. In terms of the economic calendar, traders are waiting for the data for Britain, the business activity index in the services sector for March, where a decline is expected from 51.3 to 51.0. PMI. Statistics for the United States will be released this afternoon.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a good upward surge against the background of information flow regarding Brexit. As long as there is a speculative interest, and the pair can still grow towards 1.3220, where the earlier cluster is located. But then, on the general overheating and understanding of the information background, the reverse movement is possible.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let’s consider them:
– Positions for the purchase of speculators can be considered at the beginning of the jump, as soon as the information arrived. Now, it is going towards the value of 1.3220.
– Positions for sale at the moment are not available. They will be considered once it is already near the value of 1,3200-1.3220, when a stop or possible stagnation appears.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that on the background of information, indicators randomly changed their interest. I do not exclude that with the reverse information flow, it can fly out today. Moreover, the indicators will also quickly replace the interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 3 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 71 points. It is likely to assume that due to the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level.
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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