Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed volatility slightly above the daily average of 91 points, resulting in a rollback phase after a rapid decline. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an interesting multi-move approach, where in the beginning, there was a prolonged stagnation of 1.2100 / 1.2200, which eventually turned into an impulse move to the psychological level of 1.2000, but then came the phase of regrouping of trading forces, expressed in rollback to the previously passed stagnation.
As discussed in the previous review, traders that are waiting were rewarded with their patience, and the movement to the psychological level gave them good profit, where most of them took profit as safety net, just in case we saw it after the fact – a pullback in the form of a regrouping of trading forces. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the global downward trend is holding the market in tight grip, not allowing it to adjust much. The clock frequency is maintained in the “Impulse” phase, which, of course, alarms traders with their duration.
The news background of the past day was empty in terms of the economic calendar, which cannot be said about the information background. Discussions of the UK & EU divorce proceedings are reaching a new level, and so, John Bolton, a U.S. national security adviser who arrived at a two-day meeting in London, said the United States would support Britain’s exit from the European Union without an agreement with Brussels, if the government decides in London. “Big Brother gave the go-ahead” – that’s how it all looks from the outside. Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself had a telephone conversation with the head of the Belgian government, Charles Michel, where he demanded that the European Union change the Brexit deal.
“Regarding Brexit, Boris Johnson said that the existing deal was rejected three times by Parliament, so it should be amended. He repeated that Britain was ready to honestly negotiate an alternative to backstop, but if the EU continues to insist on the impossibility of amending the withdrawal agreement, we will have to withdraw without a deal on October 31.” the Prime Minister’s press service said in a statement.
In turn, ordinary Britons are very versatile about the actions of the ruling composition. Judging by the survey conducted by ComRes, 54% of respondents said they consider Boris Johnson the best prime minister than they expected; 54% of respondents believe that the work of the legislative body can be suspended in order to prevent parliamentarians from hindering a hard exit. At the same time, judging by another study from the organization Premium Credit, the British are afraid of the consequences of a hard exit and have already spent about 4 billion pounds on supplies of medicines and food.
Today is a very busy day in terms of the economic calendar. The first package of statistics will be released in the UK, where they expect a decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 38 thousand to 32 thousand. Synchronously across the Britain, statistics on average wages are published, including premiums and without them, where indicators grow to 3.7% and 3.8% inclusive. UK data could have a short-term positive effect on the pound. We expect the most important data in the afternoon regarding the level of inflation in the United States, where growth is expected from 1.6% to 1.7%, which could play into the hands of the US currency.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the rollback process returned us to the limits of the lower savings line 1.2100 / 1.2200, which held us for a long time. This value in this case plays the role of resistance and can help sellers accumulate short positions. Traders, in turn, having fixed a profit, wait for the recovery of the downward movement and, in particular, the fixing of the price is lower than the psychological level of 1.2000.
It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within 1.2000 / 1.2100, where the alignment of trading forces will occur. Entering short positions now is considered a risky undertaking, unless, of course, your take profit order is not worth 1.2020. If you, nevertheless, set your sights on the main course of the market, which is worth taking a waiting position, I analyze clear price fixations lower than 1.1980-50.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let’s specify them:
– Buy positions were initially considered in terms of a pullback from the level of 1.2000, which happened as a result. Now, long positions will be considered in terms of fixing prices higher than 1.2120, which signals a return to the previously formed cluster.
– Sales positions are considered in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1980-50, with the prospect of a move to 1.1850-1.1700.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in general, tend to decrease due to the general mood of the market. Indicators in the short term took a variable neutral position due to the price movement in the previously formed pullback.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(August 13 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 40 points. It is likely to assume that due to the broad news flow, volatility will at least be within the upper limit of the daily average.
Resistance zones: 1.2150 **; 1.2150 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1.3300
Support Areas: 1,2000; 1.1700; 1.1475 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com