For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed the so-called mega-volatility of 227 points, returning the quote to the point of the beginning of the corrective move 1.3300. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a 100% recovery after a 10-day decline, where the quote came close to the range level of 1.3300. Naturally, such fluctuations can be triggered solely by the informational and news background. Yesterday, negotiations were held in Strasbourg between Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker concerning the ill-fated Brexit agreement, where new legal guarantees were reached on the borders between Ireland, which is a part of Britain and Northern Ireland. Theresa May said: “We have made legal changes to the agreement on secession from the European Union. This is exactly what Parliament wanted from us. The arrangements are transparent: “backstop” cannot last forever. ” At the expense of such news, the pound literally took off, but most of the whole movement is speculative interest, since there are a lot of nuances with this agreement. In turn, the leader of the British Labor Party Parliament rejects the deal with the EU, which is alarming for the investors and making it clear what is happening.
Today, the focus of all market participants is voting in the UK Parliament, where a decision will be made regarding the agreement. In turn, experts are already inclined to a common opinion that it will be rejected. In any case, for the speculators expanse, the volatility will remain at a high level.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the speculative bullish attitude persists in the market, although a rollback in this case would be the most logical solution. On the eve of the vote, we are waiting for a high amplitude oscillation, not excluding 1.3300-1.3200, where if the agreement is blocked, we will see a sharp move down, but then there will be an attempt to consider the issue of postponing the exit, but on this news, the return of the quote is possible.
As you already understood, the amplitude can be very high, as well as the risk of trading. Thus, if you are not confident in your abilities and jumping in impulses is not your job, then it’s best to sit on the fence ***. But if you are focused on speculative operations, then you can try to break into impulses. In the event of a verdict in the British Parliament – listen to the information background.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is an upward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that indicators of indicators on smaller TFs can quickly change due to jumps on the information background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 12, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 99 points, which is no longer a low value for a given time interval. It is likely to assume that due to the information background, the volatility will still grow, overcoming the average daily rate.
Zones of resistance: 1.3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** We sit on the fence – slang expression, we are out of the market
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