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Weekly Fundamentals – 29 March 2015
THE WEEK AHEAD FUNDAMENTALLY – KEY DATA TO WATCH OUT FOR
Last week’s opening commentary was about the battle between the bulls and bears in the USD. This week is more of the same with the added excitement of the first Friday of the month and the release of NonFarm Payroll. Remember that this figure has been known in the past to mark turning points.
As it’s the first week of the month we have a flurry of Manufacturing PMI figures. A figure above 50 represents growth whilst one below represents contraction.
► USD: USD news starts on Tuesday with Consumer Confidence forecasted at 96.6.
On Wednesday we have Manufacturing PMI expected at 52.5.
Thursday sees the release of the Trade Balance number which is likely to be a deficit of 41.5Bn and the customary Unemployment Claims number estimated to show that a further 285,000 joined the ranks of claimants.
Friday witnesses the much awaited NonFarm Payroll figure which is guesstimated at 251,000 and the Unemployment Rate which is expected to remain constant at 5.5%.
► EURO: Euro news starts on Monday with German CPI forecasted to be 0.4%.
On Tuesday we have Euro CPI which is expected to show a fall of 0.3%.
There is no further news of note for the rest of the week.
► GBP: Three items of importance for the GBP. Firstly on Tuesday we have the Current Account number which is anticipated to show a deficit of 21.2Bn.
On Wednesday we have Manufacturing PMI at 54.5 and on Thursday Construction PMI thought to be 60.4.
► YEN: Four newsworthy items for the YEN.
On Sunday we have Preliminary Industrial Production which is expected to contract by 1.8%.
On Monday we have Average Cash Earnings. This measures the change in the total value of employment income collected by workers and is thought to be 0.7%.
On Tuesday we have the Tankan Manufacturing Index and the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index. The first is expected at 14 and the latter at 17.
► AUD: Only two items of note for the AUD starting on Tuesday with the release of Building Approvals which is expected to show a decline of 3.7%. Australia has one of the world’s biggest housing bubbles which is beginning to fray at the edges.
On Wednesday we have the Trade Balance number which is thought to show a deficit of 1.25Bn.
► CNY: Two items for the CNY both on Tuesday when we have the Manufacturing PMI expected at 49.7 and the HSBC Manufacturing PMI which is expected at 49.3.
OUR VIEW: Not a great deal in the way of data but we do have the NonFarm Payroll figure. This figure has in the past marked turning points.
Coupled with a seemingly never ending stream of geo-political and military flash points, the latest being in Yemen we are in for another interesting week.
Stay nimble. Good luck trading.
CHECK OUR INTERACTIVE ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR FULL LIST OF UPCOMING DATA RELEASES
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